An El Niño weather event is now “firmly established”, and is set to intensify in the coming months, with major impacts globally on rainfall and temperature patterns. The phenomenon develops every few years, and involves the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean becoming hotter than normal, according to Professor Bill McGuire, a professor specialising in climate hazards. An El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5°C above the long-term average. Yet forecasts predict sea surface temperatures will rise to more than 3°C above average in the coming months, peaking in December. Some forecasts suggest it might even reach nearer 4°C. How would an El Niño weather event impact the weather? Globally, it is anticipated that the world will see more flooding, drought and extreme levels of heat which will continue into next year. The climate phenomenon has already been linked to a weakened monsoon season in India, as well as increased wildfires. In the UK, the Met Office said it’s expected that we’ll experience wetter, stormier conditions throughout autumn and winter. How could it impact my food shop? With weather being impacted globally, there’s a risk of El Niño impacting the UK’s food supply chain and energy security, according to Professor Amanda Maycock, the joint chair of the Met Office Academic Partnership and Professor of Climate Dynamics at University of Leeds. “We should be preparing for imminent effects worldwide, including heavy rain and flooding in south-western US, East Africa and south-east China as well as drought in the Amazon basin, Southern Africa and eastern Australia,” she said. “Although these seem like far flung places, these regions can affect what happens in the UK through global food supply and energy security.” Notes from a roundtable on the likely impacts of El Niño on the UK over the next 12 months – chaired by the Met Office’s chief scientific adviser, Professor Stephen Belcher – suggested a number of ways in which the weather phenomenon could impact food supply. Experts highlighted how the global food system is already under stress as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and climate change. El Niño is expected to put the system under further stress. Emilie Vanpoperinghe, co-founder of wonky fruit and veg provider Oddbox, told The Observer: “What consumers are likely to see is short-term shortages of some products. There will be change in sizing, changes in pricing, but it is difficult to predict.” These are the food items which could be impacted most: Fruit and veg Around 50% of food in the UK is imported, including around 80% of fruit and vegetables – “often from countries such as Spain and Morocco, where El Niño could exacerbate drought”, per the government’s roundtable report. Vanpoperinghe suggested there’s a shortage of small and medium avocados, so retailers have had to adjust their promotional plans and “the season is now finishing early”. Mangoes and grapes could be vulnerable if South America experiences extreme rainfall. Asparagus yields from Peru are also reportedly down – and the veggies that do make it to the UK might have a shorter shelf life or appear smaller. Rice Rice production is expected to be hit by weather impacts from El Niño. India’s monsoon season, which is important for rice production, is already being impacted by El Niño. This year, India recorded its driest June in 12 years. Wheat and grains Wheat prices – which are already at their highest level in three years – could rise even further if drought conditions continue to impact harvests in the US and Australia. Per the Guardian: “Experts say wheat supplies in key exporting countries are at their second-lowest levels on record. Already, Australia’s wheat plantings are down 12% due to expectations of dryness and increased fertiliser costs.” Coffee and chocolate Tropical commodities like chocolate and coffee are “particularly vulnerable” to the effects of El Niño, the government’s roundtable added, as global supplies are highly concentrated in certain countries, which are at the mercy of extreme weather. How much will food prices go up? It’s hard to say. There have been some estimations that El Niño could cause food prices to double in the UK, however the roundtable concluded that “the data are limited and the confidence in this estimate is low”. The authors added: “The last El Niño, in 2023, had virtually no discernible impact on UK food prices.” That being said, they did suggest food prices “may increase in anticipation of expected El Niño impacts, not just as a result of realised production losses”. “This can occur when governments impose export controls in anticipation of reduced yields of domestically grown foods, for example Indian rice.” The Food and Drink Federation (FDF)’s latest forecast shows food inflation is expected to reach nearly 4% by Christmas, peaking at 6.4% in July 2027, as a result of extreme weather and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The FDF also pointed out that food prices have risen by nearly 40% since 2020 and a £100 weekly shop in 2020 would cost nearly £140 today – and will approach £150 by next summer. On top of the impacts of El Niño, UK farming is still very much reeling from the effects of multiple heatwaves and a prolonged drought this summer. HuffPost UK previously reported that fruits and vegetables already at risk of price hikes this autumn because of this summer’s extreme weather, include: brassicas (cauliflower, broccoli and cabbage), peppers, cucumbers, potatoes, carrots and onions. In August, Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), said that while the UK’s food and drink manufacturers “work hard to absorb costs”, they are “already grappling with rising costs as a result of war in Ukraine and in Iran”. She expected these pressures would be reflected in higher retail prices. As for whether empty shelves could become the norm, a Food Council spokesperson noted it’s not expected and “the more likely outcome is ‘shrinkflation’ – produce that’s smaller and a bit pricier”. Related... 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