SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - MARCH 28: (R-L) Alexa Grasso of Mexico secures a rear choke submission against Maycee Barber in a flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Climate Pledge Arena on March 28, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC) Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight contenders Alexa Grasso vs. Manon Fiorot will throw down this weekend (Sat., Sept. 12, 2026) inside Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Ariz., for Noche UFC 4. After consecutive and clear losses to the division’s No. 1 and No. 2, former champion Grasso needed a strong rebound performance to reassert herself into the title picture. Fortunately, Grasso delivered, ending Maycee Barber in the first frame in one of the most violent finishes in the history of women’s mixed martial arts (MMA). She jumps right back into the deep end of competition here against France’s Fiorot, a former title challenger who came within a round of dethroning Valentina Shevchenko. With the division suddenly wide open after Shevchenko’s injury and subsequent title vacation, this collision of elite contenders is more important than ever. Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete: Grasso vs. Fiorot Betting Odds Alexa Grasso victory: +172 Alexa Grasso via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD Alexa Grasso via submission: TBD Alexa Grasso via decision: TBD Manon Fiorot victory: -225 Manon Fiorot via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD Manon Fiorot via submission: TBD Manon Fiorot via decision: TBD Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook How Grasso Wins Alexa Grasso began her UFC career as a boxer and has steadily rounded out her skill set. She’s developed a nice outside kicking game to compliment her hands, and twice now, Grasso has demonstrated an impressive ability to teleport behind her opponents and attack the neck. This booking reminds me of the style clash of Grasso vs. Natalia Silva. In that defeat, Grasso struggled with her opponents quickness, output, and range. Silva was striking first and from a longer distance, meaning that Grasso’s boxing edge wasn’t able to dictate exchanges. To avoid a similar fate, Grasso has to extend exchanges. She may not have the raw athleticism of Fiorot, but she builds combinations better and keeps her defense tighter in the pocket. To encourage trades, Grasso’s goal should be to go first and third. She has to step forward with a jab or short combo, ideally block/slip Fiorot’s return fire (often a single shot), and then fire back right away. By initiating and closing exchanges, Grasso helps guarantee that she’s ahead on the numbers game and limits the relevance of Fiorot’s speed. How Fiorot Wins Fiorot’s combat sports career started in Karate, but her standout attribute is definitely athleticism. Fiorot ran up the ranks and scored a title shot almost entirely by throwing the 1-2-3 and side-kicking her opponents repeatedly. Despite the limited variety in her offense, she controls range well and is very difficult to take down. Never underestimate the value of speed and strength in combat sports. Fiorot also sets a high pace and throws a lot of offense, which is important to her overall success. Against Grasso, she’ll have to walk the balance of doing more without walking into big shots. Barber just tried to walk through Grasso’s offense, and it ended terribly! Fortunately, “The Beast” has sharper long range weapons than Barber. She should look to stab at Grasso with jabs, side kicks, and regular left body kicks. If Fiorot is out-landing Grasso at distance, she can force the slower fighter to try to close distance. That’s how Fiorot lines up her counters, which are usually her heaviest blows that do the most damage. Grasso vs. Fiorot Prediction As mentioned, I’m reminded of the Grasso vs. Silva matchup, which did not at all go well for Grasso. She was consistently outworked at range, beaten to the punch, and couldn’t get her wrestling going. The most likely outcome here is a repeat of that bout, because Fiorot has the same skills needed to prevent Grasso from building success. Grasso is a clutch fighter with a gift for creating surprising moments, but I don’t like betting on miracles. Prediction: Fiorot via decision To checkout the latest Noche UFC 4 fight card and rumors click here.