A man stands outside a polling station in London at the last general election. Labour is on course to win the next election, according to new analysis. However, the party would lose its huge Commons majority if the country went to the polls now. The findings, by UK Polling Report, come despite the fact that Reform UK are still more popular than the other parties. Nevertheless, the first-past-the-post electoral system would reward Labour for having a wider geographical spread of support, leaving them the largest party. According to an average of opinion polls, support for Reform is at just under 25%, with Labour on 22% and the Conservatives on 20%. When translated into seats, that would would leave Labour with 209 MPs, some 202 fewer than were elected in 2024 and 117 short of an overall majority. Reform would come second on 149 seats, with the Tories on 133 and the Lib Dems on 72. The SNP would win 44 seats, with the Greens on 7 and Plaid Cymru on 4. "IF A GENERAL ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY" PROJECTION @UKLABOUR WIN LAB: 22.1% (-11.6) REFORM: 24.8% (10.5) CON: 19.9% (-3.8)https://t.co/tifPgLf9hLpic.twitter.com/hqaPUceUdN — UK Polling Report (@PollingReportUK) July 25, 2026 The findings are a boost for new prime minister Andy Burnham less than a week into the job. However, speaking to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, the PM ruled out calling an early election before 2029. He said: “There is no general election. “And the thing I would say to you is 20 million people voted for a manifesto. We’re in a parliamentary democracy, so that is what people voted for, and I will honour that manifesto.” Asked again if he was ruling out an early election, the PM said: “Well I’m going to rule it out. There’s no early general election. I don’t think people want it. “The opinion polls might say some people do, some people don’t. I just think what I most need to do is get Britain focused on getting the country back where it should be, getting it working.” Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster. Related... How Andy Burnham Promised Labour Unity And Then Delivered A Cabinet Massacre Andy Burnham Rules Out Early General Election: 'I Don't Think People Want It' Andy Burnham Refuses To Say That He Trusts Donald Trump