For months now, experts have shared their increasing certainty that we’ll face an unprecedented “super El Niño” this year. That means the surface of the Pacific Ocean could heat up to 1.5-2°C above usual temperatures, which disrupts the world’s weather systems. The phenomenon is linked to hotter summers and warmer global temperatures overall. In the UK, scientists think it could create a stormier, wetter autumn and a chilly winter. “Although the UK is thousands of miles from the tropical Pacific, El Niño can influence weather patterns across Europe through remote atmospheric connections,” the Met Office wrote in a recent update. This may include “cold snaps” and storms. Separately, forecasters have said that a cold air pattern called the polar vortex is starting its season stronger than usual. What does that mean, and how might it affect the UK? What is a polar vortex? A polar vortex is a stream of wind that forms high above the North and South Poles at different times of the year. This year, the arctic (north) polar vortex, which appears over the area in winter, is showing stronger signs than usual for late September, though it looks like it could even out in October. Does a stronger polar vortex mean a colder winter in the UK? Not always. A strong, stable polar vortex actually helps to contain very cold winds and conditions to the North Pole; it works as a very blustery kind of atmospheric fence. This actually protects the UK from deep freezes. But when that grows weak or spreads, colder conditions escape the vortex. After that, they make their way further down to the equator. Longer-range forecasts suggest the polar vortex might get weaker in January or February of 2027, which is when this might, possibly, begin to affect us. There are lots of ways in which this cycle could be weakened, but perhaps the most significant to us are sudden stratospheric warmings, which the Met Office says can make the winds in the vortex reverse direction. However, not only does a weaker polar vortex – and even a sudden stratospheric warming – not necessarily mean we’ll face a frozen winter here in the UK, but predictions of a possibly destabilised vortex are far into the future. Nor have we outright predicted a sudden stratospheric warming yet, though the El Niño could make this eventuality more likely. So... what have experts said about the UK’s winter weather so far? Polar vortices aside, El Niño could make our winter colder, wetter, and stormier. “Later in the season, El Niño is associated with increased risk of cold snaps,” the Met Office shared. Prof Ilan Kelman, Professor of Disasters and Health at University College London, told HuffPost UK: “El Niño is expected to make the UK’s autumn milder, wetter, and stormier, the UK’s winter colder and stormier, and next year’s UK summer hotter. “We should be ready to deal with such weather, although we are not. The expected hotter summer is particularly challenging given climate change’s evident worsening of heatwaves, in the UK and around the world”. And Dr Akshay Deoras, Senior Research Scientist, National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, said: “In the UK, there is no robust link between El Niño and our annual average temperature or rainfall, although it can influence seasonal weather. “For example, a wet, windy and mild autumn is possible, followed by a cooler and drier winter. People should follow weather warnings issued by the Met Office”. We may need more time to see whether the polar vortex, whose data is newer, has much of an effect on our weather in winter 2026/7. Related... Here's What A 'Super El Niño' Really Is As Experts Predict UK Winter Impact A 'Super' El Niño Is Brewing, Here’s How It Could Impact Your Food Shop A 'Super' El Niño Is Coming, Here’s How It Will Impact UK Weather This Winter